Simulation Shows That New Pandemic Virus Clade X Could Kill 900 Million People and There’s No Cure For This Deadly Disease So Far

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A leading medical institution created a simulation that shows how a new disease could kill 900 million people, Business Insider reports.

What’s Clade X?

Clade X virus could be the next pandemic scare and the world is not prepared to face it, showed studies conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. With no vaccination and no drugs to cure it yet, Clade X can kill 900 million people across the globe covering about 10% of the world’s population.

There had been more than 400 cases and 50 deaths so far, mostly split between Frankfurt, Germany, and Caracas, Venezuela in the last few months. However, doctors warn that in case humanity fails to come up with a vaccine against Clade X, the global health will be at stake and the virus will emerge as a killer disease for the entire world.

clade-x-virus-pics

Source: Shutterstock/Tonhom1009

Symptoms

Patients presented with fever, cough, and confusion. In a disturbing number of cases, encephalitis — swelling in the brain — caused patients to fall into a potentially fatal coma.

Researchers had been able to isolate what appeared to be a new pathogen, a disease-causing agent.

The virus seemed to be a new type of parainfluenza virus from a family of respiratory viruses that normally cause mild illnesses like the cold. While it appeared to spread through coughing, the virus took a week for the patients to show severe symptoms of the condition. Scientists studying the disease couldn’t identify where the virus fit in the parainfluenza family, so they referred to the pathogen as parainfluenza Clade X.

Health authorities said Clade X, which appeared to spread by coughing and to take up to a week before patients started showing severe symptoms, had pandemic potential.

What did the simulation show

clade-x-virus-pics

Source: centerforhealthsecurity

In order to create a real time scenario and test how well the policy makers and the government are armed to face an outbreak of Clade X, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security has come up with a simulation that revealed the world does not have adequate ways to deal with such an emergency that can prove pandemic for the world.

The scenario was designed to be completely realistic, with a disease that could plausibly exist and a world that has the exact same resources to respond as we do now.

On May 15th, when the “Clade X” simulation was played out real-time, the people acting out the scenario were the sorts of individuals who’d be responding to this situation in real life. The players included former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Indiana Representative Susan Brooks (R), former CDC Director Julie Gerberding, and others with extensive experience.

Yet by the day’s end, representing 20 months after the start of the outbreak, there were 150 million dead around the globe, and 15 to 20 million deaths in the US alone. With no vaccine for the illness yet ready, that death toll would have been expected to climb.

“I think we learned that even very knowledgeable, experienced, devoted senior public officials who have lived through many crises still have trouble dealing with something like this,” Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health Security and the designer of the Clade X simulation, told Business Insider. “And it’s not because they are not good or smart or dedicated, it’s because we don’t have the systems we need to enable the kind of response we’d want to see.”

If efforts to develop a vaccine continued to fail, Toner said a disease like this could kill 900 million people, or more than 10% of the world’s population.


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Simulation Shows That New Pandemic Virus Clade X Could Kill 900 Million People and There's No Cure For This Deadly Disease So Far
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Simulation Shows That New Pandemic Virus Clade X Could Kill 900 Million People and There's No Cure For This Deadly Disease So Far
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A leading medical institution created a simulation that shows how a new disease could kill 900 million people, BusinessInsider reports.
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